// the system
HOW RISK LAB WORKS
A casino has no idea what the next spin will do — but it knows exactly what ten thousand spins will do, so it wins. Risk Lab gives your trading the same machinery: every trade becomes data, the data becomes measured edge, and the edge becomes decisions about setups, stops, exits and sizing that you can actually defend.
// 01 — import
Every trade you take becomes data
Drop the export from your exchange or prop firm straight into the journal — Hyperliquid, Bybit, MEXC, MetaTrader/FTMO and more have dedicated importers, and the column mapper reads any other spreadsheet.
Everything is normalized to R — profit divided by what you risked. R makes a $50 trade and a $5,000 trade comparable, which is what makes every number downstream honest.
// 02 — playbooks
Name your setups, then measure them separately
A "strategy" is usually three or four different setups wearing one name — and one of them is often quietly losing. Tag every trade into a playbook and each setup gets its own card: win rate, expectancy, profit factor, and the probability the edge is real rather than luck.
Each playbook carries its own risk % per trade. Change it as you learn and Risk Lab starts a new era — your old trades keep their stats forever, and you can compare eras side by side.
// 03 — heat & run
See inside every trade, not just its result
A +1R winner that was down 0.9R first is a very different trade from one that never went red. Risk Lab fetches the real candles for every imported trade and computes its heat (how far it went against you) and its run (how far it went in your favor — including after you closed).
This is the data layer almost no trader has, and it's what turns "I think I exit too early" into a measured, answerable question.
// 04 — pre-flight
Plan the trade before you're in it
File your entry, stop, target and thinking before you click buy — with your playbook's checklist and its risk % pre-filled. When the trade later lands in your journal, the plan links to it automatically.
Now every trade has two versions: what you planned and what you did. The gap between them is your execution quality, and Risk Lab measures it on every single trade.
// 05 — analyzer
Review every trade on its own chart
The Heat & Run analyzer puts each trade on its real chart with your levels drawn in — flip to the after-exit view to see what price did once you were out. Browse by journal, playbook or symbol, and mark trades reviewed as you work through them.
Old trades with no plan? Reconstruct one right there — levels, chart screenshot, and what you were thinking or feeling at the time.
// 06 — deep stats
Ask your data real questions
Build any cohort — one playbook, longs only, scalps only, one symbol, one risk era — and get an honest verdict: the probability your edge is real, the range your true expectancy sits in, and how many trades you need before the numbers mean anything.
The "where the edge lives" table splits the cohort every way at once. This is where you discover your entire edge is in your longs, or that the 1.5% era genuinely trades better than the 2% era did.
// 07 — optimize
Find the better exit — proven on your own trades
Because every trade carries its heat and run, Risk Lab can replay your whole history under different rules: a tighter stop, a fixed take-profit, a partial at +1.5R. It tells you which rule would have beaten your actual exits, and by how much per trade.
The Bias Lab does the same for behavior — cutting winners early, letting losers breathe, revenge sizing — and shows which one is actually costing you money.
// 08 — simulate
See the future's realistic range
Monte Carlo your measured edge forward: a thousand simulated futures built from your own trades, each setup compounding at its own playbook risk %. You see the drawdown you should expect, the odds of a losing month, and what sizing does to both.
So when a 5-loss streak arrives, you've already seen it in simulation a hundred times — it's variance, not a broken system, and you keep executing.
// why this data is worth collecting
THE PAYOFF COMPOUNDS
None of these tools matter in isolation. The payoff is what they do together: a complete, honest record of how you actually trade, and the machinery to turn that record into better rules, better exits and better sizing — provable improvements, on your own numbers.
// small edges are invisible
Feel can't detect a 0.2R difference. Data can.
The difference between +0.1R and +0.3R per trade is the difference between a hobby and an income — and it is completely undetectable by gut feel. It only shows up in a sample of measured trades. Every trade you don't log is edge information thrown away.
// losses become tuition
You already paid for this data
Every losing trade bought you information about your system — where stops are too tight, which setup underperforms, what your real heat tolerance is. Without a journal you pay the tuition and skip the lesson. Risk Lab collects the receipt on every trade automatically.
// the loop
Plan → execute → measure → refine
This is the whole game. Plan with Pre-Flight, execute, let Heat & Run measure what actually happened, then refine the playbook — its rules, its stops, its risk %. Each cycle sharpens the next. Risk eras keep the history honest, so you're always refining on clean data.
// sized by math
Risk sizing stops being a guess
Your playbooks' real win rates and payoffs produce a mathematical sizing ceiling (Kelly), your simulator shows what any risk % does to drawdown, and each setup carries the risk it deserves. Position size becomes a calculated output — not a mood.
// EVERY LAP AROUND THIS LOOP MAKES THE NEXT ONE SHARPER. MOST TRADERS NEVER CLOSE IT — THEY PLAN SOMETIMES, EXECUTE ALWAYS, MEASURE NEVER. THE MEASURING IS THE EDGE.